俺本周的思路

发信人: vankie (似水流年),
信区: Stock
标 题: 综述一下俺本周的思路
发信站: BBS 未名空间站
(Tue Nov 13 23:21:10 2007)

1. 这是一轮比8月更为猛烈的correction, down trend已经形成，暂时不要奢求反转。
2. 严重超跌的市场，未有整理的情况下200日线击穿，VIX高于30。。。这样的市场在200日线附近借消息面发生报复性反弹，属于正常现象，不需要过分解释。
3. OE周机构有将股价一定程度拉起杀扑的动机，消息面也有所支持，因此本周料不会出现新低。
4. 今日反弹量能不足（昨天是veteran's day，因此不作为参考），下盘不稳。
5. 这波反弹可能以大盘10日线和双顶颈线为主要阻力，点位区间为NAZ 2705附近，DOW13450附近。

那么, 操作主线也就不言而喻。

近期牛股选单 + 野鸡FA

不一定立刻就搞，但是近期应该有机会：
TECH
- AAPL
- GOOG
- VMW
- RIMM

CHINA
- SINA (ER approximately 11/6)
- CTRP (ER 11/7)

FINANCIALS
- GS
- MS
- NYX(ER on 11/2)
- ICE

ENTERTAINMENT & CASINO
- LVS (ER estimated 11/1)
- WYNN (ER 10/30)

OTHERS- CMG(ER on 10/30)

早晨起了个大早，去农贸市场买了只乌鸡。到现在已经煲了5个小时了。据说慢工出细活儿，过会儿看看口感怎么样。（已经吃过了，牛逼不是吹的，至少比“宏城”强）

中午去跟个朋友吃早茶。朋友是做服装加工生意的，生意大得很，是国内最大的加工厂之一，公司在国内自己也有个大家耳熟能详的品牌，我就不暴露了。据他说，美国方面的订单在第三季度还好，但是第四季度远远低于预期。由于是加工，第三季度的成衣主要是供应第四季度和第一季度的需求，第四季度订单的主要是给春季和夏季做供应。也就是说，从成衣这一项来说，2008年第一季度和第二季度的美国消费需求可能会比较疲软。

今天另一个消息是AP报导苹果店限制每人购买iphone不得超过两台，同时有野路子消息说有恶霸神医440元一台收购，号称“有多少要多少”。推论是目前可能第三方批量购买iphone然后拿到iphone还未上市的国家做破解的情况比较多，苹果不想硬件+服务费分成的双收入源被这种行为冲击，到时候挣不到服务费分成，所以正着力控制这个趋势。俺觉得这基本是个中性消息。

10/23/2007

俺的冒牌龟壳意见：不要过分担忧什么不好的ER，大盘基调已经定下了，一切将在下周二的FOMC水落石出，开始建仓则可以不必等到那时。大盘将不再会远离这个绿色的整理三角形。华尔街的bonus rally就在眼前了。IMHO + YMYD

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17501316050&a=113465205

反正大方向向上，下礼拜二之前作空的就得想好撤退路线了否则裤衩就没了。亚麻的market cap只是果果和狗狗的零头罢了，没那么大影响，只是个洗盘的幌子，最后连它自己都得被别的兄弟拉上去。这两天既然果子，狗和日妹妹都冲去了，NAZ就不太会再跌回来了。WMT的担忧更多的是自身问题，并不能代表国内消费市场的近期走向。油他妈的总不能再涨了吧？金融方面，这季度街上的books都做的很难看，guidance也搞得悲悲戚戚的，当然也是为了争取一个持续的减息啦。大本要帮你，你得给他个过硬的理由么，否则人家将来自传怎么写？所以还是老思路：- have full faith in bull market- buy solid growth stocks on dip/consolidation- focus on large and mid cap tech

OE day, 适合捡点儿货

经过一个多礼拜的修整，很多好股都形成了比较好的set up，等着OE结束，当月靠变成废纸之后，就可以开始上攻了。今天挑了几个比较好的图，明天在比较保险的位置可以适当建仓了。买入卖出点我懒得一一写上来了--图上应该一目了然。

CMI
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMI&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p19297918836&a=119054837

CRDC
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRDC&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p08818831986&a=119686677

CTRP
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CTRP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065726

DWSN
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DWSN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065043

CF
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p60576500452&a=119890391

DECK
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DECK&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p87738985585&a=119891269

RIO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RIO&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p60576500452&a=119890618

哈哈今天骂人骂爽了

骂爽了，红的也喝了半瓶，现在来说说这个股市。

市场：ER季节是个值得cautious的季节。市场之前很大的gain, 正好利用各个ER为借口开进行一轮修整。为何说修整而不是整理？因为我们刚经历了大整理（>10%)，当前大盘需要的是暂时的歇息，而不是一个深度回调。老大说了，这次回调的深度会决定年底能够达到的高度。目前来看，2725是个比较reasonable的估计。这样看来，年底的最高点将会非常可观。

当前：quick swing，或者俺叫它“快摆”，是可以挣钱的。其他的悬。这里面几个关键因素是：
（1) 不是牛股不要买
（2）不到确切的支撑，并且这个支撑起作用，不买
（3）知足快跑
现在很多股都可以做快摆，什么BCSI, NVDA, ICE, ASTI都可以。关键是耐心等到支撑确定再入，然后有了一定profit要及时知足出来。大盘不确定的时候，只要挣钱就是好样的。

苹果：逐渐显露帝王之相。这次的market pullback里面，除了第一天的panic selling被迅速拉回之外，几乎没有任何机构出货迹象。不要多想，机构不卖，我们就不卖！年内200极为reachable.

其他：目前几个不错的swing trading candidates:
CTRP: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CTRP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065726

ASTI:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASTI&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p09657266027&a=119787199

CYNO:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYNO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119064893

近期ER:
明天的ISRG貌似可以小赌怡情：http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISRG&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p09657266027&a=113220196

Tue 10/16/2007

Market recap:
- 3rd distribution day for Naz in 4 days. (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p08818831986&a=113465205)
- 3rd distribution day for S&P500 in 4 days: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p79814239758&a=113465207
- 3rd distribition day for Dow in 4 days.:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p83964438438&a=113465208

Market in pullback and consolidation mode. Possible lows of this pullback:
Dow: 13700
Naz: 2730
SP: 1525

Strategy:
Position trading: Focus on leaders showing outstanding relative strength during the sharp sell-offs in the last few days. Buy long term calls at close to suppot/intraday lows. Trades entered incude AAPL, BCSI and FWLT

Quick swing trading: capture 1-2 day bounces of leaders off 20MA.

Picks:
Leaders in strong consolidations mode:
- AAPL(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p60576500452&a=112920478)
- BCSI(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p87738985585&a=119053168)
- FWLT(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FWLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p82124421065&a=119497196)

Leaders pulling back to/at 9MA, 20MA or major support lines:
- VMW(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p87738985585&a=119493608)
- ICE(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ICE&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p82124421065&a=119172271)
- CYNO(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYNO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119064893)
- CMI(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMI&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p19297918836&a=119054837)

Current holdings:
1. AAPL. Stocks, Nov and Jan calls.
2. BCSI. Nov and Jan calls.
3. VMW. Stocks.
4. FWLT. Jan calls.
5. ICE. Jan calls.
6. CMI. Nov calls.

IBD stocks that are not yet too extended

The market is quite extended with most of the 1-tier leaders way above there 9MA and previous breakout points. I looked at the IBD 100 stocks and a few others, and found the following charts relatively less extended and might be providing some decent buy points in the next few days.

BCSI:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p61584811699&a=119053168

DWSN:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DWSN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065043

CTRP:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CTRP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065726

CYNO:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYNO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119064893

GME:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GME&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065075

GPOR:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPOR&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065664

SII:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SII&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065736

TEX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065779

10/08/2007

Market:
A fairly quite consolidation day for the indices as all markets saw small gain or loss on much lighter volume than yesterday and recent averages. After a somewhat crazy day last Friday, this is a positive sign as it shows the profit-taking is minimal and the uptrend is trying to stay healthy from overheating.

The True Leaders:
What a spectacular day for the horseman group -- AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, BIDU, AMZN all made decent gains from 2.4% -- 4%, easily beating the 0.3% on NAZ. These are the core team of "Sha-Bang Stocks" and you can see how they lead the markest with style. BIDU, AAPL and RIMM are all quite extended at this point and we should hold on to our long positions while be cautious to add and wait patiently till when they pullback to the 9MA. If you are not yet in these leaders, take a look at AMZN -- it is the least extended and could give opportuties to enter should the market have an intraday pullback tomorrow. FLWT is another set up that's comparatively less extended than the others.

Today's trades:
1. Sold RIMM Nov100C in the morining when stock was trading above 118. RIMM might run up another 5-10 points from here before it pulls back, but it wasn't a bad decision to lock in an almost 200% prifit on the ER-bet calls.

2. Sold VMW Oct 95 calls in the morning when stock was trading at 94.2. This was probably a little early (stock rose to 95 at close). Oct calls are highly vulnerable now as the time value is evaporating quickly. VMW is very extended and a pullback to 20MA is desired before I consider re-entering. It might just go straight up, but the risk/reward will be hard to justify.

3. Sold NYX Oct 85 and 90 calls. 200MA is right there at 84.5 and the stock closed right at it. I don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow so I just rang the cashier on it. Still kepping Nov 90 calls.

4. Bought AMZN Nov 100 calls when stock pulled back to near previous high at 94. Thanks to Littletree -- a very precise pivotal point call. A powerhouse consolidated thoroughly during the last few weeks. A pre-ER run could be underway.

Too tired today and did not sleep well last night. So I'm gonna call it a day and go to bed for now. The next couple days if we don't see heavy profit-taking in the market but only mild consolidation, it will probably mean that the market is not due for the real pullback until the big name ERs are due, which will be mid-late Oct -- near OE. I suspect that would be the case.

10/04/2007

今儿个股版冒出来相当多的搅屎棍，跟那儿一通儿的装B，搞得老大，罗宾，千户，小Q和俺都非常的不爽。小树忍到天黑才封了一个，还惹来了不少指责。所以俺短期内不去那个蛙池了，就在咱自个儿的不老歌上除除草，到千户小屋去灌点水，再跟村长他们发发野鸡果果email。

好，那么咱就话说这个LDK。。。哈哈，谁他妈鸟它啊，见了疑似艾滋女躲着走就好。咱看看大盘先：

虽然前几天出现了一两个勉强能算数的distribution days, 但是几个市场的量都相当的偏小，价格波动也非常的mild。个现象出现在一个比较“高危”的地带，也就是2700，14000和1500这附近，说明机构profit-taking意愿并不显著，大盘处于一种温和整理的气氛当中。这可能来自于机构对这次ER的整体状况持有比较好的预期。真正的pullback可能反而出现在ER出来的时候----走一个buy expectation, sell news的套路。这是我对老大指示的理解，可能不完全对但是应该查不太多。如老大这两天所教导的，当前的任务是：（1）出掉比较extended的头寸，特别是这种股票的当月粮票；（2）对于不是非常extended的头寸，如果非当月粮票或者蛋糕，留着。（3）大量重要ER出来之前，也就是接下来的两周里面，我们要找到领头牛股的重要短线支撑，比如前高、9日线、20日线，最好是比较“紧”而且量能逐步收缩的股票，并义无反顾地long这短期内的最后一大口。老大说这之后的pullback深度将会决定年底这个大rally的高度，这个要特别作为一个课题来每天思考。

本着这样的短期大势研判，俺看了一些图，认为如下股票可以近距离观察：

1. CMI

2. ISRG

3. NOV

4. DECK

5. FWLT

6. DRYS

7. OVTI

8. SKX

9. HURN

10. BSC

最后review一下当前的仓位：

1. AAPL. 俺说过今天154.7加仓之后这已经是我有史以来最大的仓位。都是蛋糕和远期靠，属于傻捂型头寸。没啥好说的，11月176目标不变，年底或一月200不算高。

2. NYX. 好事多磨，图还是很不错的。OCT的粮票时间价值流失的厉害，星期一再不到85就要换11月的了。

3. VMW的10月粮票。昨天早晨应该跑了，没下手，目前处于那种很不爽的“盈利但是感觉像被套”状态。到周一再无起色就要扔掉或者换11月靠。这是比较extended的一个，所以可能跑起来需要更果断一些。

4. CMI、ISRG和CROX。都是蛋糕和远期靠，图都很不错，其中CMI更好一些。

明天可能择机上一点NOV，非常喜欢这个图。

年底购物季节快到了，来看几个卖衣服卖鞋的

CROX最强，其他的都落后于大盘。落后于大盘不等于没前途。tech目前非常extended, 中概也跑了一个多礼拜了，船们也都开出去几个海里了。下面，零售等“第二梯队”理应追该上来。今天看看卖衣服卖鞋的里头几个比较八错的---

Say Goodbye to 14000

It was somewhat surprising to see the markets taking out the previous highs without much effort. But it happened just like that, and we have to give the market credit for its strength instead of overthinking this move makes sense or not -- it just happened and it is reality now.

A quick look at the leading stocks in my port:

1. AAPL. it's extended (well who isn't)? I realy would like to see a minor pullback to the 9MA and the supporting trendline near 152, but if it doesn't happen it wouldn't surprise me either. sit tight with my stocks and Nov calls.

2. FWLT. A nice breakout of the consolidation wedge. I hope to see some more volume confirming this action. A strong close above 136 and this stock can go to 150 in less than 6 trading days.

3.ISRG. I'm glad I sold my calls last week -- just not moving quickly enough to let me make money on calls. Still holding stocks. But I still think we will be seeing a 4-5 day rally to the 250 area pretty soon.

4. DRYS. Simply amazing. It's getting close to the upper trendline of the channel and shold consolidate sideways or slightly downward for a few das. Might want to cash out my calls tomorrow morning.

5. VMW. Not much TA to do with limited chart. 90 will be a resistance but anything can happen with this monster new IPO. Will just trade the momentum.

6. NYX. I like today's strong close on higher volume than yestday. The last three candles hints for a breakout from the consolidation,. We may see 85 by end of this week.

7. NILE. This one concerns me. If tomorrow we can't close above 95, we might dip down to 90 again and seek support at the 20MA.

8. SINA. Not much follow through after yesterdays reversal candle. But the chart is alright. A new high on vol and I'll add to this position. China is hot and will be for a while.

9. DSX. How can you not love the huge institutional buying volume on 9/21 and today? This stock is going to 36 quickly.

苹果“第二条腿”假想图

江湖上流传说第二条腿会比第一条更陡，时间上更快。这个假想图并没有考虑这一点，而是假定它会以相似的pace达到目标价位。

人生苦短

今天失去了一个朋友。

俺以前在上海工作时候合租一套公寓的室友，75年的。昨晚在北京家里心脏病突发，没有抢救过来。他有先天性心脏病，曾有过发病史。治疗了好几年了，一直在家静养，最近用了新药，医生说恢复状况良好。没想到还是没能躲过这一劫。听说他近期还是抽烟熬夜，想必也是直接原因之一。

一起坐在北京路常德路口的金师傅吃荠菜大馄饨，讲述前晚留宿的女网友如何如何，仿佛就在昨天。一位风趣、友善，待人仗义也颇有女人缘的北京帅哥，就此随风而去。

心情甚坏，就不去念叨什么劳什子的股市了。

今天说中文，NND

国庆快到了，提倡说中文。

1. 大盘
今儿个是又一个follow-trough day (中文翻译没找到），也就是说9/18大涨之后，今天NAZ和DOW都在量比昨天高的情况下明显高收。同时，我今天在MITBBS股版也提到了，从9/18至今所有三个指数没有出现过一个distribution day. 所以目前的看法是大势依然健康，虽然旧高已经接近，大盘并未出现明显的卖压。明天有corp profits, GDP 和失业统计三个重要经济数据出来，市场可能会有动荡。因此不建议明早做太多操作。等市场反映基本明确了再操作不迟。

2. 主要持仓
（1）AAPL：突破之后的健康盘整。不动。
（2）ISRG：各方面指标已经齐备，将加速上攻。已经装满，等着坐轿子。
（3）AMZN：非量价指标方面有点吃不准，但是图还是很“紧”。Hold.
（4）NYX：77-78阻力区间的拉锯战接近尾声，多方应该胜出。下一目标82.5, 之后是85。
（5）CMI：类似于ISRG，稍差。hold.
（6）DRYS: 整个sector有盘整需求。可能明天会出掉10月靠，待稍低位换成11月。
（7）BCSI：量价关系不太好，密切关注，破位则割肉。
（8）VMW：突破后正常的盘整，9日线跟上来接近后可加仓。

3. 思考--为何师父能在9/10准确判定大盘升势？
（1）今天一一调阅了Nasdaq领头股BIDU，RIMM，AMZN，ISRG，AAPL在9/9, 9/10附近的形态，发现确实都是典型蓄势上攻的set-up。老大曾经跟我说，他是通过观察leaders的形态判定correction已经完毕。
（2）大盘本身在9/10之前已经出现了higher high and lower low形态，并且在8/29出现了follow-through day. IBD当时确实已经指出“market in confirmed rally”.
（3）可是那会儿谁他妈敢建仓呢？---我领会这里面一个重要的思维是：只要图上体现出市场已经作好上攻的准备，消息面的事情就变得不那么重要。8/16--9/18这段，几乎所有媒体和散户都聚焦于联储究竟会出台什么样的减息决策。其实，不减，减0.25，减0.5，市场都是要上攻，只是节奏可能会有差别。媒体的作用是让主导机构之外的市场整体处在一种氛围当中，似乎消息面，政策面是最重要的，是不明确就不能动作的。其实并非如此。

今天就说这些。早上六点要起床，待会儿洗洗睡了。

Market recap

No bad econ news could stop the NAZ from continuing its rally. This morning was a great buy on dip opportunity for a lot of the leading stocks. Right now, the tech leaders have mostly made their new highs and are the very engines that are fueling the index. AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, RIMM, GRMN and AMZN have all just made their all time highs, showing the quality of true leaders of a tech-led market. These will be the stocks that make the largest gains by the end of this bull market, which is likely to be sometime late 2008, according to the "Presidential Cycle" theory.

The strategy is quite clear now: Buy or call these leaders near the natural supports such as 9EMA and 20EMA whenever possible. Keep the OE dates in mind when playing option -- sell or "roll over" options 1.5--2 weeks before OE to protect gains.

In the next few days, other leaders such as ISRG, CMI, FWLT will catch up. Tomorrow morning could be a pretty good opportunity to load up the port with these leader stocks. Also, some smaller stocks that have been acting strong lately are likely to continue their uptrend and post even bigger gains than the 1-tier guys:

DRYS, NILE, BCSI, NVT, VMW, just to name a few.

This is not a time to be anything less than bullish. Anyone that doubt the bull market or even go short against the trend will regret unless their trades are pure DT speculation. This is a powerful market rally buoyed by solid fundamental reasons, and it will crush anything that comes in its way.

Cong to all AAPL farmers

The last two have been holidays for AAPL farmers -- the long await breakout finally happend right after the OE week, just as we had thought it would. The breakout left a break-away gap on both the daily and the weekly chart, a strog sign that the buying pressure was so prevailing. With the market sentiment being dominantly bullish, it is likely this monstrous leader will snap a 20% gain in the first two weeks of its rally, and if that happens, a $200 stock should it be by year end or early 2008. Here is a chart I posted right before the break out. The second one, also marked up last Friday, is a daily chart with all the OE dates marked with a vertical green line. As you can see, a 2-month run can be expected after a solid 2-month consolidation in July and August.

9/20/2007

As planned, today was a "hen day" -- did nothing except for adding a few NYX Oct 80 calls around 72. The market is having a brief consolidation. Many leading stocks broke out of their recent bases on Tue right after FOMC.

Tomorrow is OE day, so I don't expect much action in the market. My plan is still to sit tight with my longs and calls, and hopefully build a position of AAPL calls if the stock dips down to 139-ish intraday. The reason of buying AAPL calls has been discussed in last nights post with chart.

With the indices getting a 2-day consolidation after a super break out day on Tue and a minor follow through on Wed, I expect next week to be an up week for the markets. It's worth noting that NAZ closed the small gap it left yesterday, which I mentioned in last night's post. Hopefuly, we'll see new highs in leaders such as GOOG, AAPL and AMZN in the next week. Tech is clearly the leading sector right now and I would not be surprised if it continues to lead the market's rally into year-end.

To put it simple:
1. Year-end rally is already happening and we have to play aggressively on the long side.
2. Tech leaders are the most worthwile to play in ths round.
3. Buy/call pullback to 9ma and 20ma will be the primary tactic during this uptrend.


The junk stock CRDC broke out as I expect but sold off right after the gap up and closed near the low of day. I probably will sell it in the morning to free up some funds to build call positions in real leaders -- it is not the very best time to flirt around with trash, although this one does look like it is far from done with its up trend. Gotta prioritize.

NYX 9/20/2007

The chart speaks for itself -- it's a real break out. as long as it closes above 72 this week, I see it saying goodbye to the bottome and climb up quickly. entire financials is in a strong come-back, and this sector is reversing. short squeeze is likely to happen soon.

I have Oct 75 and 80 calls bought when stock was trading between 69 and 71.

Possible near term trend AAPL

9/19/2007

A follow through day after the explosive rally across the indices yesterday on Fed cut. From a technical standpoint, Nasdaq has confirmed breakout from a multi head-n-shoulder bottom. A strong reversal chart with decent volumes on the breakout days (yesterday and today). Since OE is this Fri, a pullback to the breakout level (around 2655) will not be surprising. Plus there is a gap up this morning -- NAZ usually doesn't leave gap behind. That gap can be bought a a "buy on re-test" area.

I'm currently fully loaded with leaders such as ISRG, AAPL, GRMN, CMI and AMZN (Oct OTM calls). My strategy here is "doing nothing". I'll simply hold on to these positions and let them run into next week. From the NAZ chart, I read that after the break out is re-tested, there is not much resistance until 2720 area. That's another 2% for the market. The tech leaders that recently made or flirted with new highs should gain much more than that. SIT TIGHT, that's what I'll be reminding myself whenever an intra-day dip happens.

With regard to individual positions, AAPL and ISRG have the strongest weekly charts -- not very far from the 10ma, and decently consolidated for several weeks. CMI might be a little extended. GRMN is probably the weakest -- rising wedge on declining volume. I shall cut GRMN without hesitation when it breaks below my cost. Others I shall hold on to.

The junk stock, CRDC, has dried out on its volume and got pretty darn close to a "dead end" -- the end of the bullish wedge. I'm looking for it to stand above 11 in no more than 3 trading days.

9/18/2007

Market update:
- Today the Fed cut interest rate by 0.5%
- All indices rallied on high volume. Naz gaind 70 and Dow gained 336. Volume on Dow was less impressive than those on SP and NAZ, maybe indicating Tech and Finance are where big moneys flow to
- All indices got pretty close to the previous high, an area with possibly strong resistance. Markets might consolidate before breaking out to new highs. It is OE week this week, and that might be another factor to stop the markets from breaking out right away.

Today's trades:
1. Sold BIDU in the morning at 260. This was a bad trade as this power stock showed no obvious weakness. I sold it too early because there was a second gap up. It kept running and exploded after the FOMC announcement. Will definitely reenter on a decent pullback.

2. Sold CNEH at 3.65. This junk is very extend now. I'm expecting a sharp pull back to 9 even 20 MA after it touches $4.

3. Right after FOMC, I entered 5 positions:
(1) AMZN Oct 95 call when stock was trading at 89 (new high)
(2) CMI at 128 (new high)
(3) ISRG at 221.7 (Break out from a bullish wedge)
(4) GRMN at 106.2 (possible breakout effort from a flat consolidation area)
(5) Added AAPL at 140.71 (this was a little, well, radical)

Lessons Learned:
1. When ShiFu shows definitive confidence in a stock, like BIDU this time around, have FAITH in it and don't jump in and out like a monkey. You are likely to maximize your profit if you just sit tight
2. When markets show technical pattern off having bottomed, or set up for a rally, it does not really matter what the news are. Even the FED could not change Wall Street's plans -- the news are only used by the smart money to make the dumb money hesitate.
3. You need a more reliable broker platform. ST Elite is good but when there is a mass-trading trggering event likely today's FOMC, it gets stuck and good entries points don't work.

Thoughts for Tomnorrow
1. Markets are getting close to resistence, therefore you should take profit on swing trades when we are at resistence.
2. OE will have its effect, which might be a mild consolidation near the highs. Buy calls on Friday or Monday if opporunity is good.