Monday, October 8, 2007

10/08/2007


Market:
A fairly quite consolidation day for the indices as all markets saw small gain or loss on much lighter volume than yesterday and recent averages. After a somewhat crazy day last Friday, this is a positive sign as it shows the profit-taking is minimal and the uptrend is trying to stay healthy from overheating.

The True Leaders:
What a spectacular day for the horseman group -- AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, BIDU, AMZN all made decent gains from 2.4% -- 4%, easily beating the 0.3% on NAZ. These are the core team of "Sha-Bang Stocks" and you can see how they lead the markest with style. BIDU, AAPL and RIMM are all quite extended at this point and we should hold on to our long positions while be cautious to add and wait patiently till when they pullback to the 9MA. If you are not yet in these leaders, take a look at AMZN -- it is the least extended and could give opportuties to enter should the market have an intraday pullback tomorrow. FLWT is another set up that's comparatively less extended than the others.

Today's trades:
1. Sold RIMM Nov100C in the morining when stock was trading above 118. RIMM might run up another 5-10 points from here before it pulls back, but it wasn't a bad decision to lock in an almost 200% prifit on the ER-bet calls.

2. Sold VMW Oct 95 calls in the morning when stock was trading at 94.2. This was probably a little early (stock rose to 95 at close). Oct calls are highly vulnerable now as the time value is evaporating quickly. VMW is very extended and a pullback to 20MA is desired before I consider re-entering. It might just go straight up, but the risk/reward will be hard to justify.

3. Sold NYX Oct 85 and 90 calls. 200MA is right there at 84.5 and the stock closed right at it. I don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow so I just rang the cashier on it. Still kepping Nov 90 calls.

4. Bought AMZN Nov 100 calls when stock pulled back to near previous high at 94. Thanks to Littletree -- a very precise pivotal point call. A powerhouse consolidated thoroughly during the last few weeks. A pre-ER run could be underway.

Too tired today and did not sleep well last night. So I'm gonna call it a day and go to bed for now. The next couple days if we don't see heavy profit-taking in the market but only mild consolidation, it will probably mean that the market is not due for the real pullback until the big name ERs are due, which will be mid-late Oct -- near OE. I suspect that would be the case.

3 comments:

ichappysky said...

Vankie, when you say 'extended', do you mean it's high above 9ma?

BTW, BGC seems very 'tight'.

vankie said...

Generally speaking, extended means a stock has rose to far away from its shortterm moving averages, such as the 9ma and 20ma. Also, even though sometimes a stock can be close to the 9ma, it can look very extended on a weekly chart.

ichappysky said...

Nice 'xiao you'(college mate):)

Thanks