近期牛股选单 + 野鸡FA

不一定立刻就搞，但是近期应该有机会：
TECH
- AAPL
- GOOG
- VMW
- RIMM

CHINA
- SINA (ER approximately 11/6)
- CTRP (ER 11/7)

FINANCIALS
- GS
- MS
- NYX(ER on 11/2)
- ICE

ENTERTAINMENT & CASINO
- LVS (ER estimated 11/1)
- WYNN (ER 10/30)

OTHERS- CMG(ER on 10/30)

早晨起了个大早，去农贸市场买了只乌鸡。到现在已经煲了5个小时了。据说慢工出细活儿，过会儿看看口感怎么样。（已经吃过了，牛逼不是吹的，至少比“宏城”强）

中午去跟个朋友吃早茶。朋友是做服装加工生意的，生意大得很，是国内最大的加工厂之一，公司在国内自己也有个大家耳熟能详的品牌，我就不暴露了。据他说，美国方面的订单在第三季度还好，但是第四季度远远低于预期。由于是加工，第三季度的成衣主要是供应第四季度和第一季度的需求，第四季度订单的主要是给春季和夏季做供应。也就是说，从成衣这一项来说，2008年第一季度和第二季度的美国消费需求可能会比较疲软。

今天另一个消息是AP报导苹果店限制每人购买iphone不得超过两台，同时有野路子消息说有恶霸神医440元一台收购，号称“有多少要多少”。推论是目前可能第三方批量购买iphone然后拿到iphone还未上市的国家做破解的情况比较多，苹果不想硬件+服务费分成的双收入源被这种行为冲击，到时候挣不到服务费分成，所以正着力控制这个趋势。俺觉得这基本是个中性消息。

10/23/2007

俺的冒牌龟壳意见：不要过分担忧什么不好的ER，大盘基调已经定下了，一切将在下周二的FOMC水落石出，开始建仓则可以不必等到那时。大盘将不再会远离这个绿色的整理三角形。华尔街的bonus rally就在眼前了。IMHO + YMYD

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17501316050&a=113465205

反正大方向向上，下礼拜二之前作空的就得想好撤退路线了否则裤衩就没了。亚麻的market cap只是果果和狗狗的零头罢了，没那么大影响，只是个洗盘的幌子，最后连它自己都得被别的兄弟拉上去。这两天既然果子，狗和日妹妹都冲去了，NAZ就不太会再跌回来了。WMT的担忧更多的是自身问题，并不能代表国内消费市场的近期走向。油他妈的总不能再涨了吧？金融方面，这季度街上的books都做的很难看，guidance也搞得悲悲戚戚的，当然也是为了争取一个持续的减息啦。大本要帮你，你得给他个过硬的理由么，否则人家将来自传怎么写？所以还是老思路：- have full faith in bull market- buy solid growth stocks on dip/consolidation- focus on large and mid cap tech

OE day, 适合捡点儿货

经过一个多礼拜的修整，很多好股都形成了比较好的set up，等着OE结束，当月靠变成废纸之后，就可以开始上攻了。今天挑了几个比较好的图，明天在比较保险的位置可以适当建仓了。买入卖出点我懒得一一写上来了--图上应该一目了然。

CMI
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMI&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p19297918836&a=119054837

CRDC
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRDC&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p08818831986&a=119686677

CTRP
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CTRP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065726

DWSN
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DWSN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065043

CF
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p60576500452&a=119890391

DECK
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DECK&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p87738985585&a=119891269

RIO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RIO&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p60576500452&a=119890618

哈哈今天骂人骂爽了

骂爽了，红的也喝了半瓶，现在来说说这个股市。

市场：ER季节是个值得cautious的季节。市场之前很大的gain, 正好利用各个ER为借口开进行一轮修整。为何说修整而不是整理？因为我们刚经历了大整理（>10%)，当前大盘需要的是暂时的歇息，而不是一个深度回调。老大说了，这次回调的深度会决定年底能够达到的高度。目前来看，2725是个比较reasonable的估计。这样看来，年底的最高点将会非常可观。

当前：quick swing，或者俺叫它“快摆”，是可以挣钱的。其他的悬。这里面几个关键因素是：
（1) 不是牛股不要买
（2）不到确切的支撑，并且这个支撑起作用，不买
（3）知足快跑
现在很多股都可以做快摆，什么BCSI, NVDA, ICE, ASTI都可以。关键是耐心等到支撑确定再入，然后有了一定profit要及时知足出来。大盘不确定的时候，只要挣钱就是好样的。

苹果：逐渐显露帝王之相。这次的market pullback里面，除了第一天的panic selling被迅速拉回之外，几乎没有任何机构出货迹象。不要多想，机构不卖，我们就不卖！年内200极为reachable.

其他：目前几个不错的swing trading candidates:
CTRP: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CTRP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065726

ASTI:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASTI&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p09657266027&a=119787199

CYNO:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYNO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119064893

近期ER:
明天的ISRG貌似可以小赌怡情：http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISRG&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p09657266027&a=113220196

Tue 10/16/2007

Market recap:
- 3rd distribution day for Naz in 4 days. (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p08818831986&a=113465205)
- 3rd distribution day for S&P500 in 4 days: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p79814239758&a=113465207
- 3rd distribition day for Dow in 4 days.:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p83964438438&a=113465208

Market in pullback and consolidation mode. Possible lows of this pullback:
Dow: 13700
Naz: 2730
SP: 1525

Strategy:
Position trading: Focus on leaders showing outstanding relative strength during the sharp sell-offs in the last few days. Buy long term calls at close to suppot/intraday lows. Trades entered incude AAPL, BCSI and FWLT

Quick swing trading: capture 1-2 day bounces of leaders off 20MA.

Picks:
Leaders in strong consolidations mode:
- AAPL(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p60576500452&a=112920478)
- BCSI(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p87738985585&a=119053168)
- FWLT(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FWLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p82124421065&a=119497196)

Leaders pulling back to/at 9MA, 20MA or major support lines:
- VMW(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p87738985585&a=119493608)
- ICE(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ICE&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p82124421065&a=119172271)
- CYNO(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYNO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119064893)
- CMI(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMI&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p19297918836&a=119054837)

Current holdings:
1. AAPL. Stocks, Nov and Jan calls.
2. BCSI. Nov and Jan calls.
3. VMW. Stocks.
4. FWLT. Jan calls.
5. ICE. Jan calls.
6. CMI. Nov calls.

IBD stocks that are not yet too extended

The market is quite extended with most of the 1-tier leaders way above there 9MA and previous breakout points. I looked at the IBD 100 stocks and a few others, and found the following charts relatively less extended and might be providing some decent buy points in the next few days.

BCSI:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p61584811699&a=119053168

DWSN:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DWSN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065043

CTRP:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CTRP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065726

CYNO:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYNO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119064893

GME:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GME&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065075

GPOR:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPOR&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065664

SII:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SII&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065736

TEX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12140599933&a=119065779

10/08/2007

Market:
A fairly quite consolidation day for the indices as all markets saw small gain or loss on much lighter volume than yesterday and recent averages. After a somewhat crazy day last Friday, this is a positive sign as it shows the profit-taking is minimal and the uptrend is trying to stay healthy from overheating.

The True Leaders:
What a spectacular day for the horseman group -- AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, BIDU, AMZN all made decent gains from 2.4% -- 4%, easily beating the 0.3% on NAZ. These are the core team of "Sha-Bang Stocks" and you can see how they lead the markest with style. BIDU, AAPL and RIMM are all quite extended at this point and we should hold on to our long positions while be cautious to add and wait patiently till when they pullback to the 9MA. If you are not yet in these leaders, take a look at AMZN -- it is the least extended and could give opportuties to enter should the market have an intraday pullback tomorrow. FLWT is another set up that's comparatively less extended than the others.

Today's trades:
1. Sold RIMM Nov100C in the morining when stock was trading above 118. RIMM might run up another 5-10 points from here before it pulls back, but it wasn't a bad decision to lock in an almost 200% prifit on the ER-bet calls.

2. Sold VMW Oct 95 calls in the morning when stock was trading at 94.2. This was probably a little early (stock rose to 95 at close). Oct calls are highly vulnerable now as the time value is evaporating quickly. VMW is very extended and a pullback to 20MA is desired before I consider re-entering. It might just go straight up, but the risk/reward will be hard to justify.

3. Sold NYX Oct 85 and 90 calls. 200MA is right there at 84.5 and the stock closed right at it. I don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow so I just rang the cashier on it. Still kepping Nov 90 calls.

4. Bought AMZN Nov 100 calls when stock pulled back to near previous high at 94. Thanks to Littletree -- a very precise pivotal point call. A powerhouse consolidated thoroughly during the last few weeks. A pre-ER run could be underway.

Too tired today and did not sleep well last night. So I'm gonna call it a day and go to bed for now. The next couple days if we don't see heavy profit-taking in the market but only mild consolidation, it will probably mean that the market is not due for the real pullback until the big name ERs are due, which will be mid-late Oct -- near OE. I suspect that would be the case.

10/04/2007

今儿个股版冒出来相当多的搅屎棍，跟那儿一通儿的装B，搞得老大，罗宾，千户，小Q和俺都非常的不爽。小树忍到天黑才封了一个，还惹来了不少指责。所以俺短期内不去那个蛙池了，就在咱自个儿的不老歌上除除草，到千户小屋去灌点水，再跟村长他们发发野鸡果果email。

好，那么咱就话说这个LDK。。。哈哈，谁他妈鸟它啊，见了疑似艾滋女躲着走就好。咱看看大盘先：

虽然前几天出现了一两个勉强能算数的distribution days, 但是几个市场的量都相当的偏小，价格波动也非常的mild。个现象出现在一个比较“高危”的地带，也就是2700，14000和1500这附近，说明机构profit-taking意愿并不显著，大盘处于一种温和整理的气氛当中。这可能来自于机构对这次ER的整体状况持有比较好的预期。真正的pullback可能反而出现在ER出来的时候----走一个buy expectation, sell news的套路。这是我对老大指示的理解，可能不完全对但是应该查不太多。如老大这两天所教导的，当前的任务是：（1）出掉比较extended的头寸，特别是这种股票的当月粮票；（2）对于不是非常extended的头寸，如果非当月粮票或者蛋糕，留着。（3）大量重要ER出来之前，也就是接下来的两周里面，我们要找到领头牛股的重要短线支撑，比如前高、9日线、20日线，最好是比较“紧”而且量能逐步收缩的股票，并义无反顾地long这短期内的最后一大口。老大说这之后的pullback深度将会决定年底这个大rally的高度，这个要特别作为一个课题来每天思考。

本着这样的短期大势研判，俺看了一些图，认为如下股票可以近距离观察：

1. CMI

2. ISRG

3. NOV

4. DECK

5. FWLT

6. DRYS

7. OVTI

8. SKX

9. HURN

10. BSC

最后review一下当前的仓位：

1. AAPL. 俺说过今天154.7加仓之后这已经是我有史以来最大的仓位。都是蛋糕和远期靠，属于傻捂型头寸。没啥好说的，11月176目标不变，年底或一月200不算高。

2. NYX. 好事多磨，图还是很不错的。OCT的粮票时间价值流失的厉害，星期一再不到85就要换11月的了。

3. VMW的10月粮票。昨天早晨应该跑了，没下手，目前处于那种很不爽的“盈利但是感觉像被套”状态。到周一再无起色就要扔掉或者换11月靠。这是比较extended的一个，所以可能跑起来需要更果断一些。

4. CMI、ISRG和CROX。都是蛋糕和远期靠，图都很不错，其中CMI更好一些。

明天可能择机上一点NOV，非常喜欢这个图。

年底购物季节快到了，来看几个卖衣服卖鞋的

CROX最强，其他的都落后于大盘。落后于大盘不等于没前途。tech目前非常extended, 中概也跑了一个多礼拜了，船们也都开出去几个海里了。下面，零售等“第二梯队”理应追该上来。今天看看卖衣服卖鞋的里头几个比较八错的---

Say Goodbye to 14000

It was somewhat surprising to see the markets taking out the previous highs without much effort. But it happened just like that, and we have to give the market credit for its strength instead of overthinking this move makes sense or not -- it just happened and it is reality now.

A quick look at the leading stocks in my port:

1. AAPL. it's extended (well who isn't)? I realy would like to see a minor pullback to the 9MA and the supporting trendline near 152, but if it doesn't happen it wouldn't surprise me either. sit tight with my stocks and Nov calls.

2. FWLT. A nice breakout of the consolidation wedge. I hope to see some more volume confirming this action. A strong close above 136 and this stock can go to 150 in less than 6 trading days.

3.ISRG. I'm glad I sold my calls last week -- just not moving quickly enough to let me make money on calls. Still holding stocks. But I still think we will be seeing a 4-5 day rally to the 250 area pretty soon.

4. DRYS. Simply amazing. It's getting close to the upper trendline of the channel and shold consolidate sideways or slightly downward for a few das. Might want to cash out my calls tomorrow morning.

5. VMW. Not much TA to do with limited chart. 90 will be a resistance but anything can happen with this monster new IPO. Will just trade the momentum.

6. NYX. I like today's strong close on higher volume than yestday. The last three candles hints for a breakout from the consolidation,. We may see 85 by end of this week.

7. NILE. This one concerns me. If tomorrow we can't close above 95, we might dip down to 90 again and seek support at the 20MA.

8. SINA. Not much follow through after yesterdays reversal candle. But the chart is alright. A new high on vol and I'll add to this position. China is hot and will be for a while.

9. DSX. How can you not love the huge institutional buying volume on 9/21 and today? This stock is going to 36 quickly.