江湖上流传说第二条腿会比第一条更陡，时间上更快。这个假想图并没有考虑这一点，而是假定它会以相似的pace达到目标价位。
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
人生苦短
今天失去了一个朋友。
俺以前在上海工作时候合租一套公寓的室友，75年的。昨晚在北京家里心脏病突发，没有抢救过来。他有先天性心脏病，曾有过发病史。治疗了好几年了，一直在家静养，最近用了新药，医生说恢复状况良好。没想到还是没能躲过这一劫。听说他近期还是抽烟熬夜，想必也是直接原因之一。
一起坐在北京路常德路口的金师傅吃荠菜大馄饨，讲述前晚留宿的女网友如何如何，仿佛就在昨天。一位风趣、友善，待人仗义也颇有女人缘的北京帅哥，就此随风而去。
心情甚坏，就不去念叨什么劳什子的股市了。
俺以前在上海工作时候合租一套公寓的室友，75年的。昨晚在北京家里心脏病突发，没有抢救过来。他有先天性心脏病，曾有过发病史。治疗了好几年了，一直在家静养，最近用了新药，医生说恢复状况良好。没想到还是没能躲过这一劫。听说他近期还是抽烟熬夜，想必也是直接原因之一。
一起坐在北京路常德路口的金师傅吃荠菜大馄饨，讲述前晚留宿的女网友如何如何，仿佛就在昨天。一位风趣、友善，待人仗义也颇有女人缘的北京帅哥，就此随风而去。
心情甚坏，就不去念叨什么劳什子的股市了。
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
今天说中文，NND
国庆快到了，提倡说中文。
1. 大盘
今儿个是又一个follow-trough day (中文翻译没找到），也就是说9/18大涨之后，今天NAZ和DOW都在量比昨天高的情况下明显高收。同时，我今天在MITBBS股版也提到了，从9/18至今所有三个指数没有出现过一个distribution day. 所以目前的看法是大势依然健康，虽然旧高已经接近，大盘并未出现明显的卖压。明天有corp profits, GDP 和失业统计三个重要经济数据出来，市场可能会有动荡。因此不建议明早做太多操作。等市场反映基本明确了再操作不迟。
2. 主要持仓
（1）AAPL：突破之后的健康盘整。不动。
（2）ISRG：各方面指标已经齐备，将加速上攻。已经装满，等着坐轿子。
（3）AMZN：非量价指标方面有点吃不准，但是图还是很“紧”。Hold.
（4）NYX：77-78阻力区间的拉锯战接近尾声，多方应该胜出。下一目标82.5, 之后是85。
（5）CMI：类似于ISRG，稍差。hold.
（6）DRYS: 整个sector有盘整需求。可能明天会出掉10月靠，待稍低位换成11月。
（7）BCSI：量价关系不太好，密切关注，破位则割肉。
（8）VMW：突破后正常的盘整，9日线跟上来接近后可加仓。
3. 思考--为何师父能在9/10准确判定大盘升势？
（1）今天一一调阅了Nasdaq领头股BIDU，RIMM，AMZN，ISRG，AAPL在9/9, 9/10附近的形态，发现确实都是典型蓄势上攻的set-up。老大曾经跟我说，他是通过观察leaders的形态判定correction已经完毕。
（2）大盘本身在9/10之前已经出现了higher high and lower low形态，并且在8/29出现了follow-through day. IBD当时确实已经指出“market in confirmed rally”.
（3）可是那会儿谁他妈敢建仓呢？---我领会这里面一个重要的思维是：只要图上体现出市场已经作好上攻的准备，消息面的事情就变得不那么重要。8/16--9/18这段，几乎所有媒体和散户都聚焦于联储究竟会出台什么样的减息决策。其实，不减，减0.25，减0.5，市场都是要上攻，只是节奏可能会有差别。媒体的作用是让主导机构之外的市场整体处在一种氛围当中，似乎消息面，政策面是最重要的，是不明确就不能动作的。其实并非如此。
今天就说这些。早上六点要起床，待会儿洗洗睡了。
1. 大盘
今儿个是又一个follow-trough day (中文翻译没找到），也就是说9/18大涨之后，今天NAZ和DOW都在量比昨天高的情况下明显高收。同时，我今天在MITBBS股版也提到了，从9/18至今所有三个指数没有出现过一个distribution day. 所以目前的看法是大势依然健康，虽然旧高已经接近，大盘并未出现明显的卖压。明天有corp profits, GDP 和失业统计三个重要经济数据出来，市场可能会有动荡。因此不建议明早做太多操作。等市场反映基本明确了再操作不迟。
2. 主要持仓
（1）AAPL：突破之后的健康盘整。不动。
（2）ISRG：各方面指标已经齐备，将加速上攻。已经装满，等着坐轿子。
（3）AMZN：非量价指标方面有点吃不准，但是图还是很“紧”。Hold.
（4）NYX：77-78阻力区间的拉锯战接近尾声，多方应该胜出。下一目标82.5, 之后是85。
（5）CMI：类似于ISRG，稍差。hold.
（6）DRYS: 整个sector有盘整需求。可能明天会出掉10月靠，待稍低位换成11月。
（7）BCSI：量价关系不太好，密切关注，破位则割肉。
（8）VMW：突破后正常的盘整，9日线跟上来接近后可加仓。
3. 思考--为何师父能在9/10准确判定大盘升势？
（1）今天一一调阅了Nasdaq领头股BIDU，RIMM，AMZN，ISRG，AAPL在9/9, 9/10附近的形态，发现确实都是典型蓄势上攻的set-up。老大曾经跟我说，他是通过观察leaders的形态判定correction已经完毕。
（2）大盘本身在9/10之前已经出现了higher high and lower low形态，并且在8/29出现了follow-through day. IBD当时确实已经指出“market in confirmed rally”.
（3）可是那会儿谁他妈敢建仓呢？---我领会这里面一个重要的思维是：只要图上体现出市场已经作好上攻的准备，消息面的事情就变得不那么重要。8/16--9/18这段，几乎所有媒体和散户都聚焦于联储究竟会出台什么样的减息决策。其实，不减，减0.25，减0.5，市场都是要上攻，只是节奏可能会有差别。媒体的作用是让主导机构之外的市场整体处在一种氛围当中，似乎消息面，政策面是最重要的，是不明确就不能动作的。其实并非如此。
今天就说这些。早上六点要起床，待会儿洗洗睡了。
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Market recap
No bad econ news could stop the NAZ from continuing its rally. This morning was a great buy on dip opportunity for a lot of the leading stocks. Right now, the tech leaders have mostly made their new highs and are the very engines that are fueling the index. AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, RIMM, GRMN and AMZN have all just made their all time highs, showing the quality of true leaders of a tech-led market. These will be the stocks that make the largest gains by the end of this bull market, which is likely to be sometime late 2008, according to the "Presidential Cycle" theory.
The strategy is quite clear now: Buy or call these leaders near the natural supports such as 9EMA and 20EMA whenever possible. Keep the OE dates in mind when playing option -- sell or "roll over" options 1.5--2 weeks before OE to protect gains.
In the next few days, other leaders such as ISRG, CMI, FWLT will catch up. Tomorrow morning could be a pretty good opportunity to load up the port with these leader stocks. Also, some smaller stocks that have been acting strong lately are likely to continue their uptrend and post even bigger gains than the 1-tier guys:
DRYS, NILE, BCSI, NVT, VMW, just to name a few.
This is not a time to be anything less than bullish. Anyone that doubt the bull market or even go short against the trend will regret unless their trades are pure DT speculation. This is a powerful market rally buoyed by solid fundamental reasons, and it will crush anything that comes in its way.
The strategy is quite clear now: Buy or call these leaders near the natural supports such as 9EMA and 20EMA whenever possible. Keep the OE dates in mind when playing option -- sell or "roll over" options 1.5--2 weeks before OE to protect gains.
In the next few days, other leaders such as ISRG, CMI, FWLT will catch up. Tomorrow morning could be a pretty good opportunity to load up the port with these leader stocks. Also, some smaller stocks that have been acting strong lately are likely to continue their uptrend and post even bigger gains than the 1-tier guys:
DRYS, NILE, BCSI, NVT, VMW, just to name a few.
This is not a time to be anything less than bullish. Anyone that doubt the bull market or even go short against the trend will regret unless their trades are pure DT speculation. This is a powerful market rally buoyed by solid fundamental reasons, and it will crush anything that comes in its way.
Cong to all AAPL farmers
The last two have been holidays for AAPL farmers -- the long await breakout finally happend right after the OE week, just as we had thought it would. The breakout left a break-away gap on both the daily and the weekly chart, a strog sign that the buying pressure was so prevailing. With the market sentiment being dominantly bullish, it is likely this monstrous leader will snap a 20% gain in the first two weeks of its rally, and if that happens, a $200 stock should it be by year end or early 2008. Here is a chart I posted right before the break out. The second one, also marked up last Friday, is a daily chart with all the OE dates marked with a vertical green line. As you can see, a 2-month run can be expected after a solid 2-month consolidation in July and August.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
9/20/2007
As planned, today was a "hen day" -- did nothing except for adding a few NYX Oct 80 calls around 72. The market is having a brief consolidation. Many leading stocks broke out of their recent bases on Tue right after FOMC.
Tomorrow is OE day, so I don't expect much action in the market. My plan is still to sit tight with my longs and calls, and hopefully build a position of AAPL calls if the stock dips down to 139-ish intraday. The reason of buying AAPL calls has been discussed in last nights post with chart.
With the indices getting a 2-day consolidation after a super break out day on Tue and a minor follow through on Wed, I expect next week to be an up week for the markets. It's worth noting that NAZ closed the small gap it left yesterday, which I mentioned in last night's post. Hopefuly, we'll see new highs in leaders such as GOOG, AAPL and AMZN in the next week. Tech is clearly the leading sector right now and I would not be surprised if it continues to lead the market's rally into year-end.
To put it simple:
1. Year-end rally is already happening and we have to play aggressively on the long side.
2. Tech leaders are the most worthwile to play in ths round.
3. Buy/call pullback to 9ma and 20ma will be the primary tactic during this uptrend.
The junk stock CRDC broke out as I expect but sold off right after the gap up and closed near the low of day. I probably will sell it in the morning to free up some funds to build call positions in real leaders -- it is not the very best time to flirt around with trash, although this one does look like it is far from done with its up trend. Gotta prioritize.
Tomorrow is OE day, so I don't expect much action in the market. My plan is still to sit tight with my longs and calls, and hopefully build a position of AAPL calls if the stock dips down to 139-ish intraday. The reason of buying AAPL calls has been discussed in last nights post with chart.
With the indices getting a 2-day consolidation after a super break out day on Tue and a minor follow through on Wed, I expect next week to be an up week for the markets. It's worth noting that NAZ closed the small gap it left yesterday, which I mentioned in last night's post. Hopefuly, we'll see new highs in leaders such as GOOG, AAPL and AMZN in the next week. Tech is clearly the leading sector right now and I would not be surprised if it continues to lead the market's rally into year-end.
To put it simple:
1. Year-end rally is already happening and we have to play aggressively on the long side.
2. Tech leaders are the most worthwile to play in ths round.
3. Buy/call pullback to 9ma and 20ma will be the primary tactic during this uptrend.
The junk stock CRDC broke out as I expect but sold off right after the gap up and closed near the low of day. I probably will sell it in the morning to free up some funds to build call positions in real leaders -- it is not the very best time to flirt around with trash, although this one does look like it is far from done with its up trend. Gotta prioritize.
NYX 9/20/2007
The chart speaks for itself -- it's a real break out. as long as it closes above 72 this week, I see it saying goodbye to the bottome and climb up quickly. entire financials is in a strong come-back, and this sector is reversing. short squeeze is likely to happen soon.
I have Oct 75 and 80 calls bought when stock was trading between 69 and 71.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
9/19/2007
A follow through day after the explosive rally across the indices yesterday on Fed cut. From a technical standpoint, Nasdaq has confirmed breakout from a multi head-n-shoulder bottom. A strong reversal chart with decent volumes on the breakout days (yesterday and today). Since OE is this Fri, a pullback to the breakout level (around 2655) will not be surprising. Plus there is a gap up this morning -- NAZ usually doesn't leave gap behind. That gap can be bought a a "buy on re-test" area.
I'm currently fully loaded with leaders such as ISRG, AAPL, GRMN, CMI and AMZN (Oct OTM calls). My strategy here is "doing nothing". I'll simply hold on to these positions and let them run into next week. From the NAZ chart, I read that after the break out is re-tested, there is not much resistance until 2720 area. That's another 2% for the market. The tech leaders that recently made or flirted with new highs should gain much more than that. SIT TIGHT, that's what I'll be reminding myself whenever an intra-day dip happens.
With regard to individual positions, AAPL and ISRG have the strongest weekly charts -- not very far from the 10ma, and decently consolidated for several weeks. CMI might be a little extended. GRMN is probably the weakest -- rising wedge on declining volume. I shall cut GRMN without hesitation when it breaks below my cost. Others I shall hold on to.
The junk stock, CRDC, has dried out on its volume and got pretty darn close to a "dead end" -- the end of the bullish wedge. I'm looking for it to stand above 11 in no more than 3 trading days.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
9/18/2007
Market update:
- Today the Fed cut interest rate by 0.5%
- All indices rallied on high volume. Naz gaind 70 and Dow gained 336. Volume on Dow was less impressive than those on SP and NAZ, maybe indicating Tech and Finance are where big moneys flow to
- All indices got pretty close to the previous high, an area with possibly strong resistance. Markets might consolidate before breaking out to new highs. It is OE week this week, and that might be another factor to stop the markets from breaking out right away.
Today's trades:
1. Sold BIDU in the morning at 260. This was a bad trade as this power stock showed no obvious weakness. I sold it too early because there was a second gap up. It kept running and exploded after the FOMC announcement. Will definitely reenter on a decent pullback.
2. Sold CNEH at 3.65. This junk is very extend now. I'm expecting a sharp pull back to 9 even 20 MA after it touches $4.
3. Right after FOMC, I entered 5 positions:
(1) AMZN Oct 95 call when stock was trading at 89 (new high)
(2) CMI at 128 (new high)
(3) ISRG at 221.7 (Break out from a bullish wedge)
(4) GRMN at 106.2 (possible breakout effort from a flat consolidation area)
(5) Added AAPL at 140.71 (this was a little, well, radical)
Lessons Learned:
1. When ShiFu shows definitive confidence in a stock, like BIDU this time around, have FAITH in it and don't jump in and out like a monkey. You are likely to maximize your profit if you just sit tight
2. When markets show technical pattern off having bottomed, or set up for a rally, it does not really matter what the news are. Even the FED could not change Wall Street's plans -- the news are only used by the smart money to make the dumb money hesitate.
3. You need a more reliable broker platform. ST Elite is good but when there is a mass-trading trggering event likely today's FOMC, it gets stuck and good entries points don't work.
Thoughts for Tomnorrow
1. Markets are getting close to resistence, therefore you should take profit on swing trades when we are at resistence.
2. OE will have its effect, which might be a mild consolidation near the highs. Buy calls on Friday or Monday if opporunity is good.
- Today the Fed cut interest rate by 0.5%
- All indices rallied on high volume. Naz gaind 70 and Dow gained 336. Volume on Dow was less impressive than those on SP and NAZ, maybe indicating Tech and Finance are where big moneys flow to
- All indices got pretty close to the previous high, an area with possibly strong resistance. Markets might consolidate before breaking out to new highs. It is OE week this week, and that might be another factor to stop the markets from breaking out right away.
Today's trades:
1. Sold BIDU in the morning at 260. This was a bad trade as this power stock showed no obvious weakness. I sold it too early because there was a second gap up. It kept running and exploded after the FOMC announcement. Will definitely reenter on a decent pullback.
2. Sold CNEH at 3.65. This junk is very extend now. I'm expecting a sharp pull back to 9 even 20 MA after it touches $4.
3. Right after FOMC, I entered 5 positions:
(1) AMZN Oct 95 call when stock was trading at 89 (new high)
(2) CMI at 128 (new high)
(3) ISRG at 221.7 (Break out from a bullish wedge)
(4) GRMN at 106.2 (possible breakout effort from a flat consolidation area)
(5) Added AAPL at 140.71 (this was a little, well, radical)
Lessons Learned:
1. When ShiFu shows definitive confidence in a stock, like BIDU this time around, have FAITH in it and don't jump in and out like a monkey. You are likely to maximize your profit if you just sit tight
2. When markets show technical pattern off having bottomed, or set up for a rally, it does not really matter what the news are. Even the FED could not change Wall Street's plans -- the news are only used by the smart money to make the dumb money hesitate.
3. You need a more reliable broker platform. ST Elite is good but when there is a mass-trading trggering event likely today's FOMC, it gets stuck and good entries points don't work.
Thoughts for Tomnorrow
1. Markets are getting close to resistence, therefore you should take profit on swing trades when we are at resistence.
2. OE will have its effect, which might be a mild consolidation near the highs. Buy calls on Friday or Monday if opporunity is good.
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