10/08/2007

Market:
A fairly quite consolidation day for the indices as all markets saw small gain or loss on much lighter volume than yesterday and recent averages. After a somewhat crazy day last Friday, this is a positive sign as it shows the profit-taking is minimal and the uptrend is trying to stay healthy from overheating.

The True Leaders:
What a spectacular day for the horseman group -- AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, BIDU, AMZN all made decent gains from 2.4% -- 4%, easily beating the 0.3% on NAZ. These are the core team of "Sha-Bang Stocks" and you can see how they lead the markest with style. BIDU, AAPL and RIMM are all quite extended at this point and we should hold on to our long positions while be cautious to add and wait patiently till when they pullback to the 9MA. If you are not yet in these leaders, take a look at AMZN -- it is the least extended and could give opportuties to enter should the market have an intraday pullback tomorrow. FLWT is another set up that's comparatively less extended than the others.

Today's trades:
1. Sold RIMM Nov100C in the morining when stock was trading above 118. RIMM might run up another 5-10 points from here before it pulls back, but it wasn't a bad decision to lock in an almost 200% prifit on the ER-bet calls.

2. Sold VMW Oct 95 calls in the morning when stock was trading at 94.2. This was probably a little early (stock rose to 95 at close). Oct calls are highly vulnerable now as the time value is evaporating quickly. VMW is very extended and a pullback to 20MA is desired before I consider re-entering. It might just go straight up, but the risk/reward will be hard to justify.

3. Sold NYX Oct 85 and 90 calls. 200MA is right there at 84.5 and the stock closed right at it. I don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow so I just rang the cashier on it. Still kepping Nov 90 calls.

4. Bought AMZN Nov 100 calls when stock pulled back to near previous high at 94. Thanks to Littletree -- a very precise pivotal point call. A powerhouse consolidated thoroughly during the last few weeks. A pre-ER run could be underway.

Too tired today and did not sleep well last night. So I'm gonna call it a day and go to bed for now. The next couple days if we don't see heavy profit-taking in the market but only mild consolidation, it will probably mean that the market is not due for the real pullback until the big name ERs are due, which will be mid-late Oct -- near OE. I suspect that would be the case.

10/04/2007

今儿个股版冒出来相当多的搅屎棍，跟那儿一通儿的装B，搞得老大，罗宾，千户，小Q和俺都非常的不爽。小树忍到天黑才封了一个，还惹来了不少指责。所以俺短期内不去那个蛙池了，就在咱自个儿的不老歌上除除草，到千户小屋去灌点水，再跟村长他们发发野鸡果果email。

好，那么咱就话说这个LDK。。。哈哈，谁他妈鸟它啊，见了疑似艾滋女躲着走就好。咱看看大盘先：

虽然前几天出现了一两个勉强能算数的distribution days, 但是几个市场的量都相当的偏小，价格波动也非常的mild。个现象出现在一个比较“高危”的地带，也就是2700，14000和1500这附近，说明机构profit-taking意愿并不显著，大盘处于一种温和整理的气氛当中。这可能来自于机构对这次ER的整体状况持有比较好的预期。真正的pullback可能反而出现在ER出来的时候----走一个buy expectation, sell news的套路。这是我对老大指示的理解，可能不完全对但是应该查不太多。如老大这两天所教导的，当前的任务是：（1）出掉比较extended的头寸，特别是这种股票的当月粮票；（2）对于不是非常extended的头寸，如果非当月粮票或者蛋糕，留着。（3）大量重要ER出来之前，也就是接下来的两周里面，我们要找到领头牛股的重要短线支撑，比如前高、9日线、20日线，最好是比较“紧”而且量能逐步收缩的股票，并义无反顾地long这短期内的最后一大口。老大说这之后的pullback深度将会决定年底这个大rally的高度，这个要特别作为一个课题来每天思考。

本着这样的短期大势研判，俺看了一些图，认为如下股票可以近距离观察：

1. CMI

2. ISRG

3. NOV

4. DECK

5. FWLT

6. DRYS

7. OVTI

8. SKX

9. HURN

10. BSC

最后review一下当前的仓位：

1. AAPL. 俺说过今天154.7加仓之后这已经是我有史以来最大的仓位。都是蛋糕和远期靠，属于傻捂型头寸。没啥好说的，11月176目标不变，年底或一月200不算高。

2. NYX. 好事多磨，图还是很不错的。OCT的粮票时间价值流失的厉害，星期一再不到85就要换11月的了。

3. VMW的10月粮票。昨天早晨应该跑了，没下手，目前处于那种很不爽的“盈利但是感觉像被套”状态。到周一再无起色就要扔掉或者换11月靠。这是比较extended的一个，所以可能跑起来需要更果断一些。

4. CMI、ISRG和CROX。都是蛋糕和远期靠，图都很不错，其中CMI更好一些。

明天可能择机上一点NOV，非常喜欢这个图。

年底购物季节快到了，来看几个卖衣服卖鞋的

CROX最强，其他的都落后于大盘。落后于大盘不等于没前途。tech目前非常extended, 中概也跑了一个多礼拜了，船们也都开出去几个海里了。下面，零售等“第二梯队”理应追该上来。今天看看卖衣服卖鞋的里头几个比较八错的---

Say Goodbye to 14000

It was somewhat surprising to see the markets taking out the previous highs without much effort. But it happened just like that, and we have to give the market credit for its strength instead of overthinking this move makes sense or not -- it just happened and it is reality now.

A quick look at the leading stocks in my port:

1. AAPL. it's extended (well who isn't)? I realy would like to see a minor pullback to the 9MA and the supporting trendline near 152, but if it doesn't happen it wouldn't surprise me either. sit tight with my stocks and Nov calls.

2. FWLT. A nice breakout of the consolidation wedge. I hope to see some more volume confirming this action. A strong close above 136 and this stock can go to 150 in less than 6 trading days.

3.ISRG. I'm glad I sold my calls last week -- just not moving quickly enough to let me make money on calls. Still holding stocks. But I still think we will be seeing a 4-5 day rally to the 250 area pretty soon.

4. DRYS. Simply amazing. It's getting close to the upper trendline of the channel and shold consolidate sideways or slightly downward for a few das. Might want to cash out my calls tomorrow morning.

5. VMW. Not much TA to do with limited chart. 90 will be a resistance but anything can happen with this monster new IPO. Will just trade the momentum.

6. NYX. I like today's strong close on higher volume than yestday. The last three candles hints for a breakout from the consolidation,. We may see 85 by end of this week.

7. NILE. This one concerns me. If tomorrow we can't close above 95, we might dip down to 90 again and seek support at the 20MA.

8. SINA. Not much follow through after yesterdays reversal candle. But the chart is alright. A new high on vol and I'll add to this position. China is hot and will be for a while.

9. DSX. How can you not love the huge institutional buying volume on 9/21 and today? This stock is going to 36 quickly.

苹果“第二条腿”假想图

江湖上流传说第二条腿会比第一条更陡，时间上更快。这个假想图并没有考虑这一点，而是假定它会以相似的pace达到目标价位。

人生苦短

今天失去了一个朋友。

俺以前在上海工作时候合租一套公寓的室友，75年的。昨晚在北京家里心脏病突发，没有抢救过来。他有先天性心脏病，曾有过发病史。治疗了好几年了，一直在家静养，最近用了新药，医生说恢复状况良好。没想到还是没能躲过这一劫。听说他近期还是抽烟熬夜，想必也是直接原因之一。

一起坐在北京路常德路口的金师傅吃荠菜大馄饨，讲述前晚留宿的女网友如何如何，仿佛就在昨天。一位风趣、友善，待人仗义也颇有女人缘的北京帅哥，就此随风而去。

心情甚坏，就不去念叨什么劳什子的股市了。

今天说中文，NND

国庆快到了，提倡说中文。

1. 大盘
今儿个是又一个follow-trough day (中文翻译没找到），也就是说9/18大涨之后，今天NAZ和DOW都在量比昨天高的情况下明显高收。同时，我今天在MITBBS股版也提到了，从9/18至今所有三个指数没有出现过一个distribution day. 所以目前的看法是大势依然健康，虽然旧高已经接近，大盘并未出现明显的卖压。明天有corp profits, GDP 和失业统计三个重要经济数据出来，市场可能会有动荡。因此不建议明早做太多操作。等市场反映基本明确了再操作不迟。

2. 主要持仓
（1）AAPL：突破之后的健康盘整。不动。
（2）ISRG：各方面指标已经齐备，将加速上攻。已经装满，等着坐轿子。
（3）AMZN：非量价指标方面有点吃不准，但是图还是很“紧”。Hold.
（4）NYX：77-78阻力区间的拉锯战接近尾声，多方应该胜出。下一目标82.5, 之后是85。
（5）CMI：类似于ISRG，稍差。hold.
（6）DRYS: 整个sector有盘整需求。可能明天会出掉10月靠，待稍低位换成11月。
（7）BCSI：量价关系不太好，密切关注，破位则割肉。
（8）VMW：突破后正常的盘整，9日线跟上来接近后可加仓。

3. 思考--为何师父能在9/10准确判定大盘升势？
（1）今天一一调阅了Nasdaq领头股BIDU，RIMM，AMZN，ISRG，AAPL在9/9, 9/10附近的形态，发现确实都是典型蓄势上攻的set-up。老大曾经跟我说，他是通过观察leaders的形态判定correction已经完毕。
（2）大盘本身在9/10之前已经出现了higher high and lower low形态，并且在8/29出现了follow-through day. IBD当时确实已经指出“market in confirmed rally”.
（3）可是那会儿谁他妈敢建仓呢？---我领会这里面一个重要的思维是：只要图上体现出市场已经作好上攻的准备，消息面的事情就变得不那么重要。8/16--9/18这段，几乎所有媒体和散户都聚焦于联储究竟会出台什么样的减息决策。其实，不减，减0.25，减0.5，市场都是要上攻，只是节奏可能会有差别。媒体的作用是让主导机构之外的市场整体处在一种氛围当中，似乎消息面，政策面是最重要的，是不明确就不能动作的。其实并非如此。

今天就说这些。早上六点要起床，待会儿洗洗睡了。